I want to do some user-testing of my products for disabled people. It would be an ad-hoc thing - people might be called upon to test things once a month or so, as it suited them, and give me their feedback on the product. I had intended to get people to invoice me, but as the testers are disabled, many don't work and receive benefits instead. Someone has asked if instead of being paid as a freelancer at an hourly rate, they can instead be paid an honorarium in vouchers, as a kind of thank you for their time. I can't find anything on the HMRC website that fits this scenario. I know people are often paid in vouchers for participating in research, but I don't know what the legal status of that is.
Does anyone know if this is legitimate, or if there would be a tax issue?
​
(Also just to clarify I wouldn't be paying NIC anyway, as people are freelancers responsible for their own tax. But I also don't want to be enabling people to not pay tax. But they might not need to pay tax in this circumstance? I don't know)

Hi, I need some assistance with the inputs for Black Scholes Model.
I am looking at Option Price Calculator (option-price.com) to get Option Prices BUT the prices returned are very different than what I see in TOS. For example for MSFT 5/19 $200 Strike PUT the price is 0.11. I used Current Price of MSFT at 271, Dividend 1 % and Interest rate of 5% (default) and IMVOL of 32.69 (got from TOS) . But in thinkOrSwim the same Put Option premium is .70.
I found an implementation of Black Scholes Model and put in these values, the model also returned the option price of 0.11. Does anybody know what I am doing wrong with the model and site inputs ?
​
Cheers !!

The Federal Reserve’s two main aims are to promote stable prices and full employment. At least, those are the goals that are typically most discussed.
At times of financial system stress – like now – one of the central bank’s other jobs comes into focus: “Maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets.”
With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the forced marriage of UBS and Credit Suisse, and persistent questions around the viability of First Republic Bank, the Fed is once again confronted with the need to ensure financial system stability.
Last week, the European Central Bank had a similar conundrum: should it stand pat on rates in light of Credit Suisse’s distress, and risk higher inflation? Or should it raise rates, and risk the Swiss bank’s troubles spilling over into the broader financial system?
​
It chose the latter. A lot of economists think the Fed will do the same when it meets on Wednesday.
‌
“Bottom line is we still have an inflation problem, and the Fed needs to continue to raise rates,” Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, told Yahoo Finance. “So, they’ve obviously got one eye on the financial sector, but we still think they’re going to go 25 basis points later this week. But the language should be sort of softer and slower.”
‌
Market participants are coalescing around that view, with the CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 71% probability that the Fed will indeed raise rates by a quarter percentage point as of 2pm yesterday, and a 29% chance of no change. (By way of comparison, a month ago there was zero probability of a pause, an 82% chance of a quarter-point hike, and an 18% likelihood that the Fed would raise by a half-point).
‌
Indeed, if the Fed did defy those predictions and pause its rate-hiking cycle, that could trigger more panic.
‌
If the Fed doesn’t raise rates, “that sends a bigger signal, then I would start to get more anxious,” said Michael Arone, Chief Investment Strategist, US SPDR Business at State Street Global Advisors, in an interview with Yahoo Finance. He’s expecting a quarter-point raise.
Beyond this week’s meeting, the outlook for rates gets more murky. After all, as TKer.co’s Sam Ro writes, in some ways what has happened recently with banks has actually helped the Fed, by potentially slowing economic growth and therefore inflation.
The danger there, of course, is the Fed continuing to hike in the face of that slowdown and heading into the proverbial hard landing. Concern over that outcome has ratcheted up to the point that the market has started to price in a small cut to rates by the June meeting.
Expect all of these predictions to be scrambled after the rate decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday.

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I'll draw you a pixel art portrait or pixel art assets.
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I can work for fixed prices or an hourly rate depends on you. I can adapt to every style if needed
I'm doing portraits for $5 each one (depends on the size and if it is a full body or not).
(for another type of commission like background, tilesets, icons, etc send me a message to discuss about it)

.. word to fill word to fill word to fill word to fillword to fill word to fillword to fill word to fill

Politicians may have to resume 50:50 Catholic:Protestant recruitment, PSNI head says
Four out of five recruits to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) are from the Protestant community compared to just one from the Catholic community, the PSNI has disclosed.
If this trend continues then politicians will have to consider reinstituting the 50:50 Catholic:Protestant system of recruitment, the PSNI deputy chief constable Stephen Martin indicated on Monday.
Mr Martin also said while the same numbers of Catholics have been applying to join the PSNI the calibre of those candidates has not been as high as that of Protestant applicants - hence the reason why four out of five successful applicants in recent recruitment drives have been from a Protestant or unionist background.
Mr Martin made his comments at PSNI headquarters in Knock, east Belfast where he announced a campaign to recruit 400 new officers.
"What we have seen is that the application rate has stayed fairly consistent but regrettably the last few campaigns show us that Catholics have been less successful in getting positions in the police," said Mr Martin who took over in a temporary capacity as deputy chief constable from Drew Harris, now the Garda commissioner.
“Broadly speaking we can say over the last two or three years for every five officers who have joined four have been Protestant and one has been Catholic,” he said.
“Quite frankly that is not good enough. We are concerned about that,” he added.
Under the 50:50 recruitment system the number of Catholics in the police grew from 8 per cent when the Royal Ulster Constabulary transitioned into the PSNI in 2001 to 32 per cent at present.
When the number of Catholics in the PSNI reached just under 30 per cent in 2011 that system was ended.
In recent recruitment campaigns many more Protestants that Catholics were successful. The recruitment process was “meritorious”, said Mr Martin.
“What we are seeing is that those who are applying are being out-performed in terms of the processes by, I suppose, their competitors from the other community background,” he said.
He added, “It is really important that a police service is reflective of the community it serves. It is important for sustaining public support and confidence and, indeed, actual legitimacy. So, we are under-represented in Catholics. We want to see more apply and we want to do everything we can to see that they are successful.”
Mr Martin said the 50:50 system was very successful. He warned if the Catholic recruitment “success rate was to continue as in the last few campaigns it would be inevitable that in future years we might start to see the Catholic composition of the organisation fall”.
“That would be unacceptable and I think in those circumstances all options would need to be considered,” he said.
Did that include restoring 50:50 recruitment, he was asked. “It is a political decision but I don’t think we should be dismissing any option if we started to see the Catholic composition rate continually stall or indeed fall,” said Mr Martin.
A police spokeswoman said that during the actual recruitment process quite a number of Catholic applicants actually withdrew from that process.
Mr Martin said research showed factors affecting the reduction in Catholic recruitment included the dissident threat and “what that might meant in terms of having to set aside some of their contact with family members, the ability to travel comfortably and easily into all communities, maybe having to stop participating in some cultural activities that they have grown up with”.
Mr Martin urged people and organisations with influence within the Catholic and nationalist community such as the church, political parties, sporting bodies and schools to “advocate for people from the Catholic community to take that step forward and join the police”. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/four-out-of-five-psni-recruits-are-from-protestant-community-1.3647672

I’ve been fiddling around with the Creation Bard, which is really a wonderful class that you can do a lot of really fun and creative stuff with. And one thing I ended up coming up with is an idea that would allow you to do quite a lot of DPR with the Creation Bard at mid-late levels. This is achieved using the combination of Tenser’s Transformation + Find Greater Steed, to put Tenser’s on yourself and your steed. Any Bard subclass can use that combo, but I think the Creation Bard is uniquely good at this combo for a few reasons:

1. Performance of Creation and Animating Performance are not spells and do not take concentration, so you can use them during Tenser’s Transformation, substantially mitigating one of the main downsides of Tenser’s Transformation.
2. Performance of Creation allows the Creation Bard to create poisons, which can be applied to weapons/arrows to add quite a lot of damage.
3. Animating Performance adds some extra damage on your bonus action.
4. Note of Potential on attacks adds a little bit of extra damage too, potentially in an AOE.
5. Performance of Creation allows the Creation Bard to create spell components, allowing for frequent use of Greater Restoration to counter the exhaustion effect you can get at the end of Tenser’s Transformation.
6. The speed buff/debuff on the Dancing Item will make it easier for you to kite enemies in order to keep your concentration up.

Consider the type of DPR this could do at level 14. I will assume a base chance of 65% chance to hit and 65% chance to fail a save if you have a +5 ability modifier, and that you have 16 dexterity and 20 Charisma. I will assume you are using a longbow as your weapon, and that your steed is a Peryton (doesn’t really matter which steed it is, but I think this is optimal) that is holding a greatsword in its talons. I will also assume you have used Performance of Creation to create Purple Worm Poison, which you have applied to four arrows and the greatsword prior to combat. I assume 4 rounds of combat. You use Bardic Inspiration each round on your Peryton, who dives down and attacks from more than 30 feet away each round.
Exactly how much DPR do you do?

• Your Attacks: Each of your longbow attacks do 1d8+3+2d12 base damage. You have a 55% base chance to hit but you have advantage, so you have a 79.75% chance to hit. You attack twice per round, so that comes out to 32.70 damage per round from your attacks. That’s 130.79 damage over 4 rounds.
• Peryton Attacks: Each of the Peryton’s attacks does 2d6+3+2d12 base damage. Its base chance to hit is actually only 40% (it only has a +5 modifier to hit), but it has advantage, so it has a 64% chance to hit. However, you use your Bardic Inspiration on it once per round, so one of its two attacks each round is made at a 87.38% chance instead. It attacks twice per round, so that comes out to 34.82 DPR, or 139.27 damage over 4 rounds. But we also need to add the Peryton’s Dive Attack damage. This applies 2d8 damage each round if the Peryton gets a hit. The chance of hitting one of its two attacks is 95.46%, so this adds 8.59 damage per round. Which leaves us with a total of 173.63 damage over 4 rounds for the Peryton.
• Poison on Arrows: You attack with poisoned arrows four times. If that attack misses, then the arrow is gone, so the chance of applying the poison is subject to your chance to hit, which is 79.75%. If it hits, it does 12d6 damage if they fail a save, and 6d6 damage if they pass the save. We assume a base 65% chance of enemies failing a save, but Purple Worm Poison has a DC of 19, which is higher than you’d normally get yourself at level 14, so we assume a 70% chance of failure for it. Assuming a 70% chance they fail the save, that comes out to 113.88 damage from the poison on your arrows.
• Poison on Greatsword: The poison on the greatsword also does 12d6 damage on a failed save and 6d6 damage on a passed save. However, the poison isn’t lost if an attack misses, so the chance of the poison being applied in the fight is essentially 100% (technically 99.9996%). Assuming the same 70% chance of save failure, that means you average 35.7 damage from the poison on the greatsword.
• Dancing Item Damage: The Dancing Item attacks once each round and does 1d10+5 damage, with a 65% chance to hit. That adds 6.825 damage a round, or 27.3 damage over 4 rounds.
• Note of Potential: Note of Potential goes off every round, adding an extra 1d10 damage on a failed save. Even assuming it only hits one enemy per round, that adds 14.3 average damage over 4 rounds.

Add this all together, and you have 495.6 damage over four rounds, for an average of 123.9 DPR, at level 14. That is extremely high! And a lot of it can be front-loaded into an initial nova round if you want, since you can use three of the poisons in the first round (two on arrows and one on greatsword). And that’s all while having you and your Peryton have a ton of temporary hit points and proficiency with armor (meaning you can put the Peryton in plate barding, and use medium armor yourself). You also have the flexibility to still engage in battlefield control by animating another object mid-fight, without losing a lot of the DPR.
Of course, you can’t do this all the time, since you only get one 6th level spell slot. But you also don’t really have to build into this at all, aside from using two Magical Secrets (with Find Greater Steed being one you easily might take regardless). It’s also true that the DPR goes down a good bit against enemies that are immune to or resistant to poison, which is a good number of enemies. So this isn’t something you can or should do all the time, but it basically gives the Creation Bard the option to become a DPR monster for 10 minutes a day, essentially at the cost of one Magical Secret.

Been visiting Bangladesh for the past week. Spectrum roaming service is awesome. No issues at all. Rates are low and data roaming can be turned on or off based on your needs. You don't even have to call them to activate, it's on automatically.

Greetings All,
I was considering buying a used RAM. Its a 1500, 2016 Longhorn/Limited model, v6, turbo diesel, and has about 190,000km on the odometer. Asking price after taxes is $26,000 CAD.
According to the dealership the previous owner bought their RAM there, its accident free and well maintained. There seemed to be only superficial rust on the underside, and not much in the way of body issues. Engine looks clean and well maintained.
Its a large purchase and I am a bit weary after reading about recall issues and problems like stalled engine/fuel pump/computer issues with RAM trucks. I really want to buy something reliable (truck and dealership) and not get a headache shortly after driving it off the lot.
A few little things have given me pause :
- Dealer was fine with a third party inspection, but only at a "local garage" as opposed to an on site inspection. When asked why on site inspections were a problem, he didn't have a very clear answer, and this person had 14 years in the business. He seemed nervous talking about it. Is this a red flag?
- The maintenance report mentions one part which was not in stock that was a part of recall that needed to be replaced. Dealer didn't know what the part was and it wasn't clear from the description. I know any dealership that does recalls can do the work, but are parts shortages common for recall components? The fuel pump and stalling issues are hugely concerning to me and for sure affect 2014-17 RAMs in particular (from what I've read).
- The car is listed as CPO but with only 85 point inspection. The extended warranty is a lot pricier than the last RAM I looked at. (Around $4000.00 for most covered items). The dealership has a good rating (4/5 on google) but the the biggest complaint trending for the low scores is the service department is quite poor. I worry that the extended warranties price is perhaps proportional to the risks that particular truck has in servicing it, as opposed to broadly (that truck/yea#km). If I bought the truck it would be with their own inspection (yet to be done) and my own third party inspection, which should suffice for major issues, at least for the first year, right? Two inspections couldn't possibly miss huge issues with the car, especially if one is a third party, conducted independently of the dealership?
Other than that the car drove nicely and the price is on point.
If anyone with more truck buying/driving/owning experience could weigh in on these concerns, I'd greatly appreciate it.
TTx

Just so everyone knows, "Elder" Kevin Pearson is a disgustingly unethical person who was CEO of Ingenix, renamed to OptumInsight / UnitedHealth Group which engaged aggressively in a form of medical billing fraud that drastically increased out of pocket costs for their health insurance buyers.
He will think nothing of demanding elderly members bankrupt themselves serving 'missions' performing free labor for the corporate church which has over $100 Billion in cash and far more than that in real estate and other assets, while also collecting total compensation and benefits in excess of $250,000/year in tithing dollars on top of his ill-gained wealth obtained by defrauding his company's insurance holders. (while falsely telling the membership there is no paid clergy in the church)
With guys like Pearson being recruited into top leadership, is it any wonder the Church has actively engaged in fraudulent SEC filings while setting up phony shell corporations to hide its obscene wealth?
Kevin W. Pearson

Kevin W. Pearson (April 10, 1957) is a current member of the First Quorum of the Seventy of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. He was previously CEO of Ingenix, Inc. (1998-2005)

Optum, Inc. Makes Big Moves Since Rising from the Ashes of UnitedHealth Group’s Infamous Ingenix

To put the Ingenix fraud into perspective, Governor Cuomo described a typical scenario. An out-of-network doctor who charges $200 for an office visit is told that the “going rate” is only $77. The insurer would then normally pay only 80 percent of that figure, leaving the patient responsible for the difference of about $138. At the heart of New York’s lawsuit is how that $77 rate was set in the first place. Come to find out, the number is derived from a database of claims data created and maintained by Ingenix and then sold to other insurers.

OptumInsight, aka Ingenix
In 2006, the SEC began investigating the conduct of UnitedHealth Group's management and directors, including Dr. McGuire, as did the Internal Revenue Service and prosecutors in the U.S. attorney's office for the Southern District of New York, who have subpoenaed documents from the company.
Ingenix scandal points to need for database auditors

Cuomo had charged Ingenix with posting phony rates in its database, so that a $100 office visit might be reimbursed as a $72 visit, leaving the patient with a bill for the remainder.
The case started in 2006 when Columbia lecturer Mary Jerome complained she was left with tens of thousands of dollars in bills for ovarian cancer treatment, despite having full insurance.

Pearson was CEO from 1998-2005, when Mary Jerome was defrauded by his company. This strategy was running under his direction. "Elder Pearson" is scum who enriched himself by exploiting and defrauding sick people.

Find yourself UNBOUNDED in a limitless adventure filled with unimaginable experiences and a great community!
Features:
An unmatched Fabric Modpack with over 200 mods that still runs 40 FPS on laptops without GPUs! (Tested!- For Legal reasons, I must stress that your system must still not be a potato)
Over 50 Origins!
Create Mod
Archon
Arcanus
Twilight Forest
Chisel & Bits, Furniture, & Chisel Mods
Bewitchment
Per-Player Loot Chests
PLENTY OF QUALITY OF LIFE MODS!!
Custom World Generation
An active Discord server to bring engagement outside of the game!
Linked chat between both servers!
Helpful staff members ready to help you whenever you need it
Join us and become UNBOUNDED! Never too late to join, we barely just opened the End and started making server shops!
Join the Discord for modpack & server information https://discord.gg/Sj6XJrWv2u

Find yourself UNBOUNDED in a limitless adventure filled with unimaginable experiences and a great community!
Features:
An unmatched Fabric Modpack with over 200 mods that still runs 40 FPS on laptops without GPUs! (Tested!- For Legal reasons, I must stress that your system must still not be a potato)
Over 50 Origins!
Create Mod
Archon
Arcanus
Twilight Forest
Chisel & Bits, Furniture, & Chisel Mods
Bewitchment
Per-Player Loot Chests
PLENTY OF QUALITY OF LIFE MODS!!
Custom World Generation
An active Discord server to bring engagement outside of the game!
Linked chat between both servers!
Helpful staff members ready to help you whenever you need it
Join us and become UNBOUNDED! Never too late to join, we barely just opened the End and started making server shops!
Join the Discord for modpack & server information https://discord.gg/Sj6XJrWv2u

Find yourself UNBOUNDED in a limitless adventure filled with unimaginable experiences and a great community!
Features:
An unmatched Fabric Modpack with over 200 mods that still runs 40 FPS on laptops without GPUs! (Tested!- For Legal reasons, I must stress that your system must still not be a potato)
Over 50 Origins!
Create Mod
Archon
Arcanus
Twilight Forest
Chisel & Bits, Furniture, & Chisel Mods
Bewitchment
Per-Player Loot Chests
PLENTY OF QUALITY OF LIFE MODS!!
Custom World Generation
An active Discord server to bring engagement outside of the game!
Linked chat between both servers!
Helpful staff members ready to help you whenever you need it
Join us and become UNBOUNDED! Never too late to join, we barely just opened the End and started making server shops!
Join the Discord for modpack & server information https://discord.gg/Sj6XJrWv2u

I close in early June. I can lock in at 6.499% paying .5% in points (so like $2,000).
Or, I can wait. And wait. And wait.
Nobody knows wtf rates will be in that period of time, so I ask: what would you do?
My fear is that mortgage rates go after tomorrow after the Fed (likely) hikes rates, but obvs that isn’t for sure. And might not make a big difference to mortgage rates either way.
That’s right, I need Reddit strangers to help me make giant financial decisions.

Find yourself UNBOUNDED in a limitless adventure filled with unimaginable experiences and a great community!
Features:
An unmatched Fabric Modpack with over 200 mods that still runs 40 FPS on laptops without GPUs! (Tested!- For Legal reasons, I must stress that your system must still not be a potato)
Over 50 Origins!
Create Mod
Archon
Arcanus
Twilight Forest
Chisel & Bits, Furniture, & Chisel Mods
Bewitchment
Per-Player Loot Chests
PLENTY OF QUALITY OF LIFE MODS!!
Custom World Generation
An active Discord server to bring engagement outside of the game!
Linked chat between both servers!
Helpful staff members ready to help you whenever you need it
Join us and become UNBOUNDED! Never too late to join, we barely just opened the End and started making server shops!
Join the Discord for modpack & server information https://discord.gg/Sj6XJrWv2u

I'm really stuck on what to do or if I should do anything at all. I'm a SAHM with my 21 month old. I take in three kids during the week to make a little extra money. I didn't know how successful I was going to be at first and had a really slow start. One of the first kids I took in is a part time 8 month old. Right after she was set to start a 15 month old signed up and now I have a 2 year old starting next week.
Now my issue. The 8 mo comes 1-3 days a week for 45 minutes. She comes right in the middle of nap time and just screams the entire tome. Wakes up the kids and then just leaves. The reason I take her is because mom starts work at 1 and grandma gets off at 1. So I'm just that small buffer time. Her schedule is also not set or repeating so she has to give me a schedule every month. My husband would rather I had a more steady income with a full time kid and wants me to tell her that either she needs to find different care or pay close to full time rate because right now she only pays daily rate for the days she's here.
How would you as a parent feel about being told this?if you were told this what would be the least rude and selfish sounding way to hear it? I feel so bad because everyone needs care right now and it just seems unfair to ask this but this is also my income and has become inconvenient to me. Am I being selfish? Any advice? Other than this is something I should have thought about before agreeing to watch her child.
My rate is 35/day. So I can get anywhere from 35-105 a week from this parent.
Edit: I should mention that I can not have more than 3 other kids in my care. Therefore this part time child takes up availability for me to be able to have a full time child. Which is why I'm making this debate

Partner's (23) father passed away two years ago and has left an inheritance to her, which she gained access to recently. She's not really sure of the details, but the inheritance is in 2 parts:
She received ~£35k to her bank account. About 20k is going to go to a savings account since it will be funding a master's degree within a year or two. Rest will likely go to emergency fund/savings account/ISA, but the question is about the other part of the inheritance:
The rest (~£80k) has been in a trust(?) until she turned 23 and is handled by an independent financial advisor, she's not really been involved at all and has let the IFA handle it. She just got a letter detailing what's happening with the money now. It's going to a Collective Investment Bond with Quilter. Asked me to look at it and I've not really got any idea whether it's good or not, I'm struggling to completely understand the documentation w.r.t taxation.
She has no other savings. Still a student, has a student loan (plan 1).
The total yearly costs of the CIB are 2.27% (1% advisor, 0.92% fund fees and 0.35% to quilter). This seems pretty high. The CIB seems confusing overall, seems to be taxed at basic rate and withdrawals over 5% a year seem to possibly cause income taxation depending on her future income, all in all we're pretty unsure about that, she had some meetings with the IFA but is still confused.
She's not really ready to make decisions on the money herself. She'd rather not think about the money at all right now, it's a very stressful and emotional topic.
She's unsure if she should do something or let the money stay in the CIB (she has about 30 days to decide if she's okay with that) since it's the easiest option. Concerns are the fees, the fact that there could be more tax efficient options left unused (could put 20-40k to an ISA) and the fact that she's not had time to consider what the money might be needed for. In addition, the concern is that if she later decides that the money would be better off somewhere else, that it might be difficult to move if she has to pay income tax on just getting her money back (?), whereas usually you pay tax only on gains.
We can't really find too much information on CIB's so looking for any opinions on that, if it's something that's reasonable in this situation or not. Whether its best to let it be in the CIB or instead have it in the bank and figure it out once she's ready.

Was sitting in the dark and staring at my wall till this idea popped up
I was thinking of a concept to bring more variety to picking gears. Typically people pick speed and damage and not many pick vision or health. With Gear Synergies, adding more powerful buffs to lesser used gears could shift the meta for certain brawlers and better gear balancing.
For example; Damage+Vision can make the vision gear last for 6 seconds when the damage gear is active. Or Health+Shield can allow for the shield to regenerate in 5 seconds if the health gear is active.
Mainly, I think mythic gears could be great with this concept. Tick's gear could synergize with the health gear for more health. But to balance these synergys, each mythic gears could synergize with another gear that is not very good with a certain brawlers. Typically Tick does not need the health gear, but with a gear synergy, players could use a gear that wouldn't be ever be used on some brawlers.
I wouldn't see this coming to the game, but it's just a concept for more uses of certain gears that get overwhelmed by the more popular and stronger gears. If anyone has any thoughts or revisions feel free to criticize.

Bet record: 17-31, Staked: 53.75u, Profit/Loss: +4.96u, ROI: 9.24%, Parlay Suggestions: 21-6
If you’re not bothered about my ramblings on last week’s opinions, scroll down for UFC San Antonio Breakdowns
(For context, my UFC 286 Preview for that event can be found here: https://www.reddit.com/MMAbetting/comments/11qh6nn/ufc_286_betting_preview_ufc_las_vegas_review/)
​
UFC 286
Bets: 4-3, +5.74u, Parlay Suggestions: 3-1
✅ 3u Gunnar Nelson & Marvin Vettori both to Win (-115)
✅ 2u Jack Shore & Impa Kasangany to Win (-180)
✅ 1u Jack Shore to Win in Round 2 or 3 (+241)
❌ 1.5u Omar Morales to Win (-110)
✅ 1u Leon Edwards to Win (+250)
❌ 1u Juliana Miller & Omran Chaaban to Win (-125)
❌ 0.25u Marvin Vettori, Gunnar Nelson, Jack Shore & Juliana Miller all to Win (+205)
As I said in my initial comments about UFC 286, I think it really under delivered from a fan perspective because of the lack of high level UK prospects. Without a Molly McCann, Darren Till, Paddy Pimblett or a Tom Aspinall, the fans just weren’t as excited or vocal throughout the card.
With that said, I’m always having fun if I’m making money! This was my third winning event in a row, a streak of over 10u profit in March. It was obviously a card of strong favourites but I’m mostly happy with the spots I chose to pull the trigger on. The Nelson/Vettori parlay was nice as both men delivered exactly what I expected them to, and Jack Shore also came through to cash a bigger priced prop bet. It’s really satisfying when your reads on fights turn out to be spot on, and your bets cash with relative ease as a result. Here's some live thoughts on the card + my breakdowns:
- So proud of Leon Edwards man, that was one hell of a performance. The way he levelled up that takedown defence and made his shots count in the clinch. It was one of those complicated fights to score in that he was moving backwards and fighting defensively for the most part, but he certainly landed more shots and had the better moments. Really happy to have gotten 2/1 and 3/1 (boosted) on the dog there.
- Jesus Christ Rafael Fiziev is quick. The combinations he was throwing in the first minute of round three were some of the most terrifying spurts of offence I’ve seen in some time. And then just a minute or so later Justin Gaethje starts winging massive uppercuts and cannot miss with them. That was such a good fight, real back and forth stuff. I feel like Gaethje was lowkey a really good underdog spot all week but it’s hard to give those opinions credence sometimes when the masses are all hyping up Fiziev. At least I identified Fiziev was not a good bet.
- Massive shoutout to Gunnar Nelson for performing exactly like a -400 should, as I expected him to! He got in, landed a takedown, and found the sub soon after. I still wish he would have done that against Takashi Sato, bur he rounded out the parlay with Vettori and made it a winning night for me! Along with Hadley, he was the best parlay option on the card (as I suggested).
- Casey O’Neill didn’t shoot for a takedown. Not the fight anyone was expecting. It’s disappointing when that happens but there’s not really a whole lot you can do. Jennifer Maia is a really underrated striker so god knows why Casey chose that path. When you consider the way Jake Hadley approached his fight and compare it with O’Neill…that’s the difference between good fight IQ and bad. I actually said in my analysis “I trust O’Neill’s dedication to her gameplan here” which is hilarious. Don’t think I can be blamed for not seeing it coming though haha.
- All week I was a little bit confused by all the love for Roman Dolidze, as I got on Marvin Vettori pretty early and didn’t really see a whole lot of reasoning that I understood. To be perfectly honest, Dolidze had more success than I expected him to, and any fighter other than Vettori would probably have wilted and got stopped. With that said, that’s exactly why I bet Marvin, so I don’t necessarily think it was a bad read at all. A solid parlay leg.
- Jack Shore vs Makwan Amirkhani played out exactly as I expected it to. Amirkhani’s a good grappler, so I wasn’t surprised nor worried when he clearly won round 1. In fact, I was more confident in winning my bets as soon as the horn sounded, and it showed. I don’t really understand how a professional fighter can have such a glaring cardio issue and not address it or adjust his style. I hope they keep Makwan around, those Round 2/3 props will always be good. Happy to finally win one of those bigger priced prop bets. I’ve historically been pretty good with props but somehow been on a dry patch since I started posting here.
- Chris Duncan v Morales was a frustrating one. Morales will look back on that one and be pissed off at himself, because he should absolutely be winning that. Chris Duncan really isn’t very good and I am already looking forward to fading him in the future. Hope they try and build him up because there’ll be a good fade waiting to happen. Annoying fight to lose but fair play to Duncan for identifying the path to victory. Glad I went with a smaller stake for a volatile fight.
- A shame what happened to Dusko Todorovic. Christian Leroy Duncan is a really exciting striker so I was looking forward to seeing more of him, but you never want to see that happen. I hope we don’t have to wait until the next England card for C L Duncan’s next fight, but I also hope they give him a bit of a lay-up for to allow for a proper “debut”.
- Nicely done from Jake Hadley, making use of his striking advantage and not getting sucked into a grappling affair. Always annoys me when someone has a distinct advantage but doesn’t use it because it’s not their plan A. He was the best parlay piece of the card. Good for Hadley and I’m excited to see what else he has to offer. Wish I’d gone with him instead of backing Juliana Miller.
- I was keeping half an eye on Herbert/Klein and Wood/Carolina whilst at work. Doesn’t look like I missed a whole lot and haven't bothered to rewatch.
- Juliana Miller with an awful performance. Veronica Macedo looked much improved but it didn’t take a whole lot to defeat an opponent with no plan B. I didn’t anticipate Macedo being the stronger fighter of the two, which changed a whole lot. Poor decision from me to back an inexperienced fighter at -400 like that. Grim. Inexperience really showed.
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UFC San Antonio
I'm really excited for the main event of this one, very glad they put this fight together. Unfortunately the headliner is a massive cut above the rest of the card in terms of popularity and calibre, but we’ve had worse cards this year, I don’t mind it. Usually I’d rejoice over the fact we aren’t in the Apex…but we are in Texas, where judging has been historically AWFUL. There isn’t a whole lot we can really do with that information though, except consider how much of a fighter’s win probability is based around them finding a finish. Fighters who are likely to win without the judges getting involved will be the less volatile spots this week.
From a betting perspective, it’s a very weak card. The bookies have done a really good job of pricing the punters out of any value, as my conclusions to most fights see me lining it pretty close to the books, where there ends up being no real numerical edge on either side! Nonetheless, I’ve broken down most of the bouts on the card below:
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Cory Sandhagen v Marlon Vera
Marlon Vera has always been one of my favourite fighters. Backing him to win inside the distance when he was a prelim fighter was a spot I always looked out for back in the day, so it’s great to see him climb so high in the rankings. I always support and ride with the fighters that make me money over the years, and Vera has been one of the best of them.
Unfortunately, Vera’s always relied on his power and finishing ability to really carry him through fights, as there are a lot of instances where he’s down on the overall scorecards, before finding a finish. His wins over Dominic Cruz and Frankie Edgar are the two best examples recently, but his issue of being a slow starter also made this applicable in wins over Davey Grant, Nohelin Hernandez and Guido Cannetti. Also similarly, he was being thoroughly outboxed by Rob Font in their main event encounter last year, but the Ecuadorian was stealing rounds with knockdowns in a very similar way.
Considering I expect this fight against Cory Sandhagen to be a closely contested one, Vera’s inability to win minutes and start strong could end up becoming a problem here. The pivotal question in this fight is whether or not Vera can hurt or finish Sandhagen, as I certainly lean towards favouring Cory if this fight goes the distance and Vera hasn’t scored multiple knockdowns.
Vera is one of the most dangerous guys P4P on the roster, with KO and Submission potential across all five rounds – but Sandhagen has been pretty damn durable in his MMA career. Aljamain Sterling was the only man of 19 able to finish Cory, and it came in under 90 seconds. Sandhagen’s performance there was such a disappointment that I’m convinced there was something else going on that hindered him that night. Petr Yan also dropped Sandhagen with a spinning back fist combo, but that seemed very much like Cory getting caught unaware – and he looked like he recover instantly.
Given the calibre that Sandhagen has fought against in the last four years – I think we have to give him the benefit of the doubt in assuming he can stay safe here. If that is the case I expect him to win rounds with superior output and a faster pace – especially considering he’s got a high likelihood of being one round up after five minutes.
I’m not super confident in that take though as it’s hardly on the level of Garbrandt vs Jones or something! So it’s a fight I’m definitely lining as quite close. Sandhagen deserves to be deemed the favourite for the above reasons, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Vera’s dangerousness was enough to tip the balance in his favour, or if he was able to win a round by just point striking anyway.
I saw a stat this week that said there have been 10 rounds in 2023 where a knockdown is landed but the round still ended and was scored. Of those scorecards, the fighter landing the knockdown won 8 of 10 times. Whilst it’s highly implied that a knockdown means you’re more likely to win the round based off how the following minutes take place, that does still imply the judges are leaning towards awarding damage over minute winning (I personally hate the way MMA judging has gone these days but it is what it is). Just something to consider when you think about Chito’s path to victory.
At the end of the day, it’s an intriguing fight, and not one I think anyone should be rushing to the betting window for due to the small margins in the various skill discrepancies.
How I line this fight: Cory Sandhagen -150 (60%), Marlon Vera +150 (40%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
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Holly Holm v Yana Santos
Holly Holm is one of those fighters who makes your memory play tricks on you. I instinctively feel like I have a good read on her style and overall calibre, but then when I watch tape she’s always a much more underwhelming version of that fighter I have in my head. She just doesn’t really put her stamp on rounds – spending too much time in the clinch and does not have high enough volume. 3.24 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes is a shockingly low number, especially considering it’s Women’s MMA and Holm has a lot of in cage time. To make matters worse, Holm averages 0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes and is now 41 years old.
Whilst there’s a lot of data to crunch on Holm, there’s actually a surprisingly smaller sample size on Yana Santos. Considering Kunitskaya (previous surname) has been a known name in Women’s MMA for some time, it’s pretty crazy to think she only has 7 UFC appearances to her name – most of which are against a lesser calibre than Holly Holm. She’s also coming off a two year lay-off having had a child with Thiago Santos, which adds further uncertainty to an already tepid read.
As I’m sure you may have noticed by now, this breakdown is much more stat-based than I typically offer (though Women’s MMA is a lot more accessible for stats), because I honestly cannot bring myself to re-watch Holly Holm’s career and I’m instead relying on what the numbers are telling me. Perhaps that’s a bit lazy, but this is the 8th week of UFC cards in a row and I am feeling very burnt out! I just don’t think either woman has a particularly commanding style, and there’s a hell of a lot of intangibles floating around this fight (old age, post-child birth, lay-offs, levels of competition, Texas judging etc), so it’s a very easy pass.
How I line this fight: I won’t line a fight I haven’t taped, but I do not recommend Holm at this price.
Bet or Pass: Pass
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Nate Landwehr v Austin Lingo
It’s a shame Alex Caceres had to pull out of the originally scheduled bout against Nate Landwehr, but good to see they managed to find Austin Lingo a fight so soon after the Ricardo Ramos one fell through a couple of weeks ago (still annoyed I didn’t get to cash some easy money there). From a fan perspective, this bout is probably the most entertaining of the three available!
Both dudes are hardnosed strikers that like to fight gritty and wear out their opponents. Neither are particularly gifted from a technique perspective, but you’d be hard pressed to find fighters that can out work these two. Pitting them against one another is going to lead to an exhausting fight.
Landwehr is the much more experienced of the two and has clearly had more career success implementing the brawling style, but I think this is just one of those matchups that’s going to be fought quite closely, given how it should play out. Landwehr relies on sheer busyness and drowning his opponents to win rounds but, if he can’t necessarily do that to Lingo, do you really have a whole lot of confidence that he’s going to be the clear round winner? The guy gets hit by 5.56 significant strikes per minute. Considering we are in Texas and there is added volatility to the judging, any fighter that can land 5.56 S.Strikes is live to win a round or two!
Landwehr’s key to winning this fight is going to be in his wrestling, as that’s where he will clearly assert himself. But can he even get it there though? Lingo’s debut performance against Youseff Zalal was a big red flag in terms of his takedown defence, but he looks to have improved it in his following two bouts. However, those came against a lower level of competition so could well be flattering Lingo’s overall ability. His takedown defence stats are quite skewed, and he’s coming off an 18 month layoff which muddies the water even more.
I think the edge in experience and overall competence at the hard-nosed styles means that Landwehr deserves to be favoured here, but I think the pricetag is a bit ridiculous. He should get the win, but I would be very surprised if he does it with the dominance of a -275. The lay off for Lingo means that he can have anywhere from a very low floor to a reasonably high ceiling. Both men are durable and will have moments in this fight, so this is one of the fights where I’m expecting some wild shit from Texas judges. If you’re convinced about betting Landwehr at -300 here, you’re crazy. Lingo the value side, but mostly based off intangibles and hypotheticals, which doesn’t fill me with enough confidence to pull the trigger.
How I line this fight: Nate Landwehr -200 (67%), Austin Lingo +200 (34%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
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Andrea Lee v Maycee Barber
This one should be pretty fun! It’s speed and agility vs power and force.
Andrea Lee is a complicated fighter to get a full read on, as her performances have really varied throughout her career. She’s well rounded enough to outstrike most equally levelled opponents on the feet, and her grappling isn’t too bad either. Takedown defence needs a bit of work though.
The biggest issue with Lee is those back-to-back losses to Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi. It’s just inexcusable to lose both of those of those fights when you’re the calibre that Andrea Lee is. I know you can argue she got robbed against Murphy (it’s probably the key example of Texas judging being so bad), but she let the fight become quite close. And yes, Barber lost to Modafferi, but that was all determined by an injury and anyone who tells you otherwise is a hater or hasn’t watched it.
I’ve always thought Barber was overrated in terms of skills, but her physicality and strength are a bit of a gamechanger in the Women’s divisions. She’s well-rounded, but statistically has lesser output than Andrea Lee…which is always concerning. I expect this one to be quite competitive, where Andrea Lee could easily stay safe on the outside and jab her way to a win, as long as she gets on her bike and utilises good footwork. Maycee will plod forward and look to land the power shot, but that’s not a particularly high percentage outcome to rely on in Women’s MMA. If she can get her hands on her and utilise the clinch, I think it’s all one way traffic from there though. Maycee is reliable to do that, at least.
I can understand Barber being the favourite based off the finishing upside, imposing striking with good metrics and ability to land takedowns…but I’m just still not wholly convinced by her ability as a mixed martial artist outside of the way she implements brute force. It might be enough here, but I just don’t like her at this short of a price. Lee has a clear path to victory that, whilst I’m not convinced she can execute it, should be taken seriously.
How I line this fight: Andrea Lee +163 (38%), Maycee Barber -163 (62%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
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Alex Perez v Manel Kape
It’s just impossible to know what we’re getting from Alex Perez at this stage, isn’t it? I like Manel Kape and rate him relatively highly, but I have always maintained that Perez on his best day could well be a champion at Flyweight. I bet him in most of his fights in the buildup to the title bout against Figgy – and I bet him there as well. Unfortunately Figgy was still in his explosive prime so it didn’t work out, but I expected Perez to become somewhat of a title eliminator gatekeeper from then on. Since that loss two and a half years ago his career has taken a peculiar turn – eight fight cancellations and a 91 second loss to Alexandre Pantoja.
There are just so many question marks surrounding Alex Perez at the moment, and that makes it impossible to know what to expect in this fight. If he was at his best, I’d consider him a slight favourite here, but who knows. Kape’s weakness is clearly defensive wrestling, and he can sometimes be low volume enough on the feet that he makes fights closer than they need to be. Perez has a good enough style to make that work and win here…providing we get him at his best.
I didn’t dive into much tape for this one as I knew I wasn’t going to bet it at all. If you think Kape beats Perez based off the footage available then you’re getting a decent price!
How I line this fight: Didn’t tape, won’t line it.
Bet or Pass: Pass
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Chidi Njokuani v Albert Duraev
It’s crazy how much Albert Duraev’s stock has fallen, all in one loss to Joaquin Buckley. Before that bout he looked sensational on the Contender Series, and followed it up with a dominant win over Roman Kopylov as a -450 favourite. He absolutely does his best work in the grappling and showed that he doesn’t have much of a plan B if he can’t land takedowns or settle his opponent on their back. I’m also not too convinced by his cardio, and any opponent that will make him work hard to secure top position can weaponise his questionable endurance in the later rounds.
Buckley’s such a physical and stocky guy though, I think he’s naturally going to be a tough opponent to take down when you’ve got a bit more of a wirey frame like Duraev does. Chidi Njokuani isn’t so muscular and stocky, so I think it’s fair to assume that Duraev’s going to be more of a threat with the takedowns than he was against Buckley.
The problem is, Chidi showed some really impressive get ups after the initial takedown and doesn’t usually settle on the bottom whilst he’s fresh. Dusko Todorovic isn’t the best grappler in the world by any stretch, but Chidi was doing all the right things to prevent hit back from lying flat on the mat, and if he has similar success against Duraev he’s cruising.
The finish to the Robocop fight was a bit of a concern, but that fight heated up to a ridiculously fast pace in round 1 that I think Chidi cardio dumped, got rocked, and kind of quit on the bottom against Rodrigues. The same could happen again, but it would rely on Duraev pushing the pace aggressively with his striking, which isn’t something he often does.
Overall, I think Njokuani definitely deserves to be a favourite here as he is much more dangerous on the feet and has shown us already that he can successfully answer the questions that Duraev will ask. The Russian also does not have much of a plan B and doesn’t always do a whole lot with his top control except set up submissions. Considering Njokuani is a BJJ Black Belt, and the judges probably won’t appreciate those kind of optics from Duraev, I’m not massively convinced by his chances here.
I’m interested to see what kind of price they’re giving for Njokuani ITD in this fight, as I’m quite convinced by his finishing ability since he moved up to Middleweight, and Duraev is very hittable if he gets stuck on the feet. If I can get + money on it I think I’d have a small wager.
How I line this fight: Chidi Njokuani -175 (64%), Albert Duraev +175 (36%)
Bet or Pass: 1.5u Chidi Njokuani & CJ Vergara Both to Win (+122)
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Steven Peterson v Lucas Alexander
I complain pretty much every week about the UFC’s current fighter calibre having massively declined recently, and nothing proves my point like Steven Peterson finally becoming a betting favourite for the first time in 8 UFC bouts. The guy has been the perfect litmus test to determine whether any fighter is UFC level, and those he has beaten were notoriously bad at the time and didn’t last long at the top level (Chase Hooper excluded because he had some “name value”).
He’s got some similarities to Austin Lingo in that he is some generic white guy with bad tattoos, that doesn’t have any real skill but is gritty and dedicated to the fight. If you can’t put him away, you’re going to have keep your shit together or he might surprise you by sheer output and ruggedness. No fighter that is credited mostly for their ability to take a punch and walk forward deserves to be a -175 favourite, but they also don’t always deserve to be massive underdogs either (see breakdown of Landwehr vs Lingo). The thing that baffles me the most though is that Peterson isn’t much of a finisher (6 of his last 7 went the distance), meaning the books are putting a fair bit of stock into his ability to win a decision.
So…Lucas Alexander. His UFC debut was a quick loss via RNC, but it came off a slip from a kick and the rest was kind of a formality at that point once Brito got the back as a result. Personally I don’t really put much/any stock into that loss as I don’t think it showed us anything about him apart from his defensive grappling isn’t elite? Ask yourself this…if this was Lucas Alexander’s UFC debut, would the line still be the same? It depends on what the regional tape looks like, but I’m quite sure it wouldn’t!
Therefore, we have to go back to the regional scene to actually get a glimpse of Alexander…and there is a lot more to be intrigued by than you might think. He’s a better technical striker than Peterson! He’s got great fluidity and movement, throws a varied arsenal of kicks and combos (lots of leg kicks, which will halt that forward pressure), and switches stances quite often. I’m not too sure how he’ll deal with being crowded by Peterson and his intense style, but I fully expect him to get the better of the majority of the striking exchanges whilst they’re at distance.
To win this fight cleanly, the grappling is the answer for Peterson…but Alexander’s defensive wrestling and get ups aren’t bad at all from what I’ve seen! I’ve seen evidence of him using the cage to get back to his feet and reversing position in the clinch, as well as maintaining position in top control. Apparently he’s a black belt as well, but I try not to immediately assume that makes you a good grappler (he does have 3 submission losses tbf). I did see a few submission attempts and successful reversals from bottom against Jeremias Fernandez, and was impressed with how he handled being on the bottom. The two regional scene submission losses both came in 2018, and honestly he looks like he’s improved his wrestling/grappling a lot since then so I’m not massively concerned by them.
Peterson has averaged just 1.61 TDs landed per 15 minutes, which isn’t a massively high number and doesn’t really fill you with a whole lot of confidence that he’s going to stick to a grappling based gameplan in this fight, especially when we know how much he enjoys brawling. If he does come with that kind of gameplan then I guess I expect him to be favoured (still hard to say how good/bad Alexander’s grappling is), but if he opts to strike I think he’s at a disadvantage.
For me, this fight is clearly a pick’em, or at least leans slightly towards Peterson as the favourite. I do expect Alexander to perform better than his +150 price tag suggests, as I think he’s got the potential to keep out of danger with the grappling and actually outscore Peterson on the feet. This fight probably goes the distance and, given the hesitance I have about Texas judges, I’d much rather be on the + money side there as well. Alexander is still being regarded as a “UFC debut” fighter in my eyes so I won’t be staking much here…but if you’re betting Peterson at -180 I think you’re crazy.
How I line this fight: Steven Peterson -120 (54%), Lucas Alexander +120 (46%)
Bet or Pass: 1u Lucas Alexander to Win (+150 or better…waiting to see if the juice continues)
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Trevin Giles v Preston Parsons
Preston Parsons looked really good in his win over Evan Elder last year, with the latter going on to impress everyone with his latest performance against Nazim Sadykhov a few weeks ago. Parsons has a really suffocating wrestling/grappling style, forcing his opponents to work and threatening with a variety of submissions. He can be a little “submission over position” but he’s got an arsenal of really good sweeps from bottom. His striking also looked decent in the loss to Daniel Rodriguez, throwing shots at angles and landing pretty cleanly on D-Rod a few times.
He faces Trevin Giles, who has had a pretty eventful UFC career so far. Giles suffered back to back R3 losses to Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert in fights he was clearly winning, where lapses in concentration saw him snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. He then went on to be the benefactor of one of the worst decisions in MMA history when he beat James Krause by decision. Giles hasn’t really gone on to do a whole lot in his UFC career since, but a well-aged win over Roman Dolidze stands out as the highlight.
Giles has decent striking himself, but he is such a low volume fighter that I think he’s going to struggle to win rounds against Preston ‘Pressure’ Parsons if he doesn’t do damage. The younger fighter will be happy to push the pace in this one, varying up his striking with a few takedown entries and just overwhelming Giles, who likes to fight patiently and methodically on the feet. Giles looks clean when he’s involved in a staring match on the feet, but when the tempo turns up and things get a bit wild he kind of loses all composure and technique (see losses to Morales and Du Plessis recently). Giles is also a decent enough grappler, but he’s prone to reversals on the mat (which Parsons will definitely try to execute), and can accept bottom position if his initial guard sub or two get shut down.
I’m struggling to really see why this one is being lined as a pick’em here, as Giles doesn’t hold a whole lot of advantages that I think he’ll be able to implement. He’s clearly a good striker, but the low volume should prevent him from really being able to show that off properly, and he won’t be the fighter looking to put his stamp on rounds when he’s fighting at a tempo way higher than he wants. He’s more experienced, but we’ve also seen lots of examples of poor fight IQ consistently creeping into Giles’ game and he hasn’t addressed the flaws of his style.
I’d line Parsons as a small to moderate favourite in this fight, and I’ll be betting him for a couple of units as a result.
How I line this fight: Trevin Giles +150 (40%), Preston Parsons -150 (60%)
Bet or Pass: 3u Preston Parsons to Win (+100)
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CJ Vergara v Daniel Da Silva
To me, this seems like one of those fights where the UFC are acknowledging Vergara has paid his dues, and are giving him a bit of a softball as a result.
No one really knew what to make of Vergara when he got to the UFC – a KO win on the Contender Series in 41 seconds is usually a red flag more than anything! They lined him up with Ode Osbourne for his debut, where he was a +170 underdog. He put a really impressive display in that fight, with many thinking he actually won against a guy that is quite well respected at Flyweight.
Next, he was a +270 underdog to Kleydson Rodrigues, who was making his debut as a highly, highly touted prospect. Everyone and their mothers was on Rodrigues in that fight, yet Vergara fought a really smart and dedicated gameplan and won a close split decision. I had a big bet on Kleydson in his fight a few weeks ago, and rewatching the Vergara fight had me respecting him all over again. Given what we saw Kleydson do to Shannon Ross (not that the latter is a world beater) did nothing but improve Vergara’s stock.
Then, for his third UFC bout, he gets Tatsuro Taira! Probably one of the top 5 hottest unranked prospects in the sport right now. That was the first time we saw Vergara actually look like the +220 underdog that the books had him as, but given the hype around Taira that’s actually a respectable number to be graded at! There really isn’t a long list of fighters who are willing to fight Taira at the moment, so the matchmakers have probably scheduled this fight as a thank you for Vergara being a company man.
They’ve given him Daniel da Silva (Lacerda) as a reward. DdS is a pretty wild fighter, with 15 bouts all ending inside the distance (and none even reaching round 3). That kind of kill-or-be-killed style is certainly fun to watch, but it doesn’t really work out as well as you’d think when you hit the big shows. Don’t get me wrong, he looks pretty decent in round 1, but Vergara is a durable guy that has shown good IQ in the cage so far. He should find a way to stay safe in that opening round, probably by landing a takedown and coasting in top control like Jeff Molina did (also, shoutout Jeff Molina for handling the social media chaos with grace last week!), or by pushing that ferocious striking pace and keeping da Silva on the backfoot.
Even so, da Silva is a liability to himself in Round 1 as well, as we saw in losses to Francisco Figueiredo and Victor Altamirano. Getting kneebar’d by Figgy’s subpar brother is a pretty bad look, and he had absolutely no answer for Altamirano’s ground striking as soon as he was on his back. His commitment to the guard sub is insane, and it’s probably going to be responsible for yet another loss here against Vergara.
I think we’re getting a decent price on Vergara here. The blueprint has been written on Da Silva and, whilst Vergara will have to be careful for the opening few minutes, I think CJ’s got him covered here. I jumped in on the -275 as a parlay piece, as I think there’s an argument Vergara should probably be a bigger favourite here?
Also, as a side note from watching Molina vs Da Silva – Damn James Krause was a good coach. What a waste!
How I line this fight: CJ Vergara -300 (75%), Daniel Da Silva +300 (25%)
Bet or Pass: 1.5u CJ Vergara & Chidi Njokuani Both to Win (+122)
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Vinicius Salvador v Victor Altamirano
I loved Vinicius Salvador’s DWCS performance against Shannon Ross and I’m really excited to see him make his debut, but I’m not massively sure about how good he is as an overall fighter. His style instantly makes him a fan favourite, but using nothing but head movement to defend, and having that cocky style that throws ridiculous highlight reel kicks isn’t really a positive trait when you’re looking to put your hard earned money on a fighter. It looks cool and can sometimes impress the judges…but it’s a risky game and can easily see you getting caught clean or making mistakes. There’s a reason Michel Pereira doesn’t fight like a lunatic anymore.
Salvador hits hard and absolutely has knockout power, having finished 13 of his 14 wins by KO (the other was a submission). He’s also lost inside the distance in three of his 4 losses, and Shannon Ross did have him hurt for a second or two in the DWCS fight. He’s a chaotic fighter, and I’m really annoyed we got robbed of the chance to see him fight Daniel Da Silva a few months ago. It would have been fireworks.
This might sound stupid as a genuine piece of logic and reasoning, but I have always fully believed the notion that Mexican fighters have the best chins and next level toughness. It’s kind of a dumb narrative for me to hang my hat on, but I am always hesitant to side with a knockout-based fighter if it’s a Mexican opponent they’re trying to put to sleep. We saw Altamirano eat a few clean and heavy shots from Daniel Da Silva in his last bout, which makes me think I might have to side with my illogical narrative once again.
With that said, I still think Salvador deserves to be favoured by a small margin here. Victor Altamirano just isn’t very good. His win over DdS was kind of a high variance random knee, and he was clearly losing that fight up to that point. He was competitive in the win against Carlos Hernandez, but I feel like that fight didn’t do much to show off the skills of either guy and it really solidified that they are equally matched as entry level UFC fighters. It was like an intense sparring session, where neither guy had any real sting on their shots and only looked to point score, with a bit of cage pushing thrown in for good measure.
The power discrepancy between Altamirano and Salvador is too big to ignore here. Salvador is going to come out hot and look to take Victor’s head off, and I just don’t think Altamirano is going to be able to earn back the respect of Salvador here. The striking should be one-way traffic whilst they’re fresh, simply because Salvador’s going be doing damage with almost every shot that he lands. As the fight wears on though, I expect Altamirano have a lot more success in the later minutes, as he settles into the fight and has grown confident he can withstand the power (as well as some of the sting coming off Salvador’s shots).
Altamirano doesn’t look like wrestling/grappling is his preferred skillset, but I think he would do well to lean on it a bit here. I haven’t been able to really find any tape on Salvador’s defensive wrestling/grappling, but I have to assume that a fighter with as little technical discipline as him is probably not the greatest grappler in the world.
I see Vinicius Salvador as something similar to the Brazilian equivalent of Trevor Peak. It's easy to get ahead of yourself and try to fade a guy with brute force and no technique, but it’s important to realise that the judges don’t score technique and as long as Salvador is landing something, he’ll earning favour with the judges and threatening to score a finish too.
I don’t think Altamirano is the guy to capitalise on those defensive lapses of Salvador, so I think the Brazilian is the rightful favourite. However, there’s not enough value on the line to justify a bet here, and Salvador could easily be the maker of his own downfall with his reckless style, and that’s not the kind of guy I like to back.
Very excited to see this one play out. I will probably throw Salvador into a couple of my untracked degenerate parlays, but officially it’s a no-bet for me.
How I line this fight: Vinicius Salvador -120 (54%), Victor Altamirano +120 (46%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
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Tamires Vidal v Hailey Cowan
The UFC are being very generous to Hailey Cowan, aren’t they!? After trying and failing to set her up with one of the worst fighters on the roster, Ailin Perez, they’re trying again to offer her a bit of a soft entry into the UFC.
The problem is that Cowan is just simply not very good, so I think she’s going to struggle against anyone that’s borderline UFC calibre. Tamires Vidal sits on the fringe, and she seems to be the much more dangerous of the two and actually has some process to her striking, so I think Cowan deserves to be the underdog once again.
The betting line here has been on a real journey already. Books opened Cowan as a +200 underdog, and it looks to have been jumped on by some opportunistic value bettors – and rightly so! I just hope the steam has come in because they think the line was wide, not because they have any real faith in Cowan!
I’m intrigued to see how far the overcorrection goes, as this one really should land around a pick’em. The books won’t mind tipping the balance towards Cowan if it means they’ve got equal money on each side, as this isn’t going to be a high stakes fight so they’ll prioritise keeping the book green.
I have to remind myself of the calibre I’m dealing with here though…both women are low level and high variance is at play! If all the money on Cowan continues to come and Vidal’s price gets bigger, then a true value bettor should pounce on any decent size + money…but you really do have to accept that you’re getting into bed with variance here.
How I line this fight: Tamires Vidal -110 (52%), Hailey Cowan +110 (48%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
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Bets (Placed bets in bold, others are pending as line may improve)
3u Preston Parsons to Win (+100)
1.5u CJ Vergara & Chidi Njokuani Both to Win (+122)
0.25u Njokuani, Parsons & Vergara All to Win (+330)
1u Lucas Alexander to Win (+150 or better)
Parlay Do’s: Njokuani, Parsons, Vergara
Parlay Don’ts: Sandhagen, Holm, Landwehr, Barber, Peterson, Cowan
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UFC 287 (Breakdown next week but don’t expect line to hold)
2u Michael Chiesa to Win (-150)
Best of luck with your bets!